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2025-08-15-title.MARKUP 🚨 STOCK ANALYSIS NOTEBOOK - EXECUTION ORDER IMPORTANT 📊 Currently configured for: NVDA ============================================================ ⚠️ This notebook must be run in sequential order (Cell 1 → Cell 2 → Cell 3…) ⚠️ Each cell depends on variables defined in previous cells ⚠️ If you get ‘name not defined’ errors, restart kernel and run all cells in order

📋 QUICK TROUBLESHOOTING:

If you see ‘stock_data is not defined’ → Run the data fetching cell first
If charts don’t display → Check font setup in the imports cell
If predictions fail → Ensure ML features are created first

🆘 EMERGENCY FIX AVAILABLE: • Cell 4 contains emergency data loading if stock_data is missing • This will automatically fetch stock data if not already loaded • However, proper order execution is still recommended

✅ BEST PRACTICE: Cell → Run All (runs everything in correct order) ✅ QUICK FIX: Run Cell 4 first if you get NameError ============================================================

🚀 STARTING NVDA DATA FETCHING…

📡 Connecting to NVDA ticker… 📅 Fetching NVDA data from 2020-08-16 to 2025-08-15 📊 Data period: 5 years (1825 days) ⏳ Downloading historical data… ✅ NVDA Data Successfully Loaded! ✅ Data shape: (1255, 7) ✅ Date range: 2020-08-17 to 2025-08-14 ✅ Total trading days: 1,255

📋 Fetching company information… ✅ Company info loaded: NVIDIA Corporation

🎉 ALL NVDA DATA SUCCESSFULLY LOADED! Variables defined: stock_ticker, stock_data, stock_info Data shape: (1255, 7) Date range: 2020-08-17 to 2025-08-14 Total trading days: 1255 Years of data: 5.0 years

Fetching company information…

📊 DATA SUMMARY: • Latest close price: $182.02 ✅ Ready for analysis!

📊 5-YEAR NVDA ANALYSIS - ENHANCED INSIGHTS

✅ DATASET OVERVIEW: • Actual data span: 5.0 years • Trading days: 1,255 • Average trading days per year: 251

📈 5-YEAR PERFORMANCE METRICS: • Total Return: +1380.3% • Annualized Return: +71.6% • Annualized Volatility: 52.7% • Maximum Drawdown: -66.3% • Sharpe Ratio (approx): 1.36

💰 PRICE ANALYSIS: • All-time high (5Y): $184.48 • All-time low (5Y): $10.80 • Price range: $173.68 • Current price: $182.02 • Distance from 5Y high: -1.3% • Distance from 5Y low: 1585.3%

🔄 MARKET CYCLES CAPTURED: • 2020: +5.9% • 2021: +124.5% • 2022: -51.4% • 2023: +246.1% • 2024: +178.9% • 2025: +31.6%

🎯 ADVANTAGES OF 5-YEAR ANALYSIS: • Captures multiple market cycles and economic conditions • Includes various market regimes (bull, bear, sideways) • Provides robust statistical foundation for ML models • Enables long-term trend and seasonality analysis • Reduces impact of short-term market noise • Large sample size (1,255 observations) improves model reliability ✅ Excellent: Full 5-year dataset available for comprehensive analysis

============================================================ 📈 FETCHING HISTORICAL EARNINGS DATA ================================================== ✅ Earnings data fetched successfully! ⚠️ Could not fetch detailed earnings data: ‘NoneType’ object has no attribute ‘empty’ Using alternative financial data…

📊 FINANCIAL METRICS: EPS (TTM): 3.09 Forward EPS: 4.12 EPS Growth: 26.7% Revenue (TTM): 148514996224 Revenue Growth: 69.2% Profit Margin: 51.7% Operating Margin: 49.1%

📅 Next earnings date not available through API

==================================================

🔮 GENERATING MULTI-HORIZON PRICE PREDICTIONS…

Generating multi-horizon predictions with improved methodology… Current price: $182.02 Daily volatility: 3.32% Recent 20-day trend: 0.272% per day

Processing 1 Week (5 days)… Trend method: $184.51 Drift method: $184.49 ML method: $179.52 Final prediction: $182.51 (+0.3%)

Processing 2 Weeks (10 days)… Trend method: $187.02 Drift method: $186.99 ML method: $178.50 Final prediction: $183.61 (+0.9%)

Processing 1 Month (22 days)… Trend method: $193.21 Drift method: $193.13 ML method: $176.82 Final prediction: $186.64 (+2.5%)

Processing 2 Months (44 days)… Trend method: $205.09 Drift method: $204.92 ML method: $174.71 Final prediction: $195.91 (+7.6%)

Processing 3 Months (66 days)… Trend method: $217.70 Drift method: $217.44 ML method: $173.11 Final prediction: $204.22 (+12.2%)

Processing 6 Months (132 days)… Trend method: $260.37 Drift method: $259.74 ML method: $167.77 Final prediction: $232.34 (+27.6%)

Processing 9 Months (198 days)… Trend method: $311.41 Drift method: $310.28 ML method: $161.06 Final prediction: $280.66 (+54.2%)

Processing 1 Year (252 days)… Trend method: $360.52 Drift method: $358.86 ML method: $155.78 Final prediction: $318.58 (+75.0%)

📊 MULTI-HORIZON PRICE PREDICTIONS SUMMARY:

Time Horizon Trading Days Current Price Predicted Price Price Change Change % Prediction Error (±) 95% Confidence Range 1 Week 5 $182.02 $182.51 $0.49 +0.3% $1.37 $179.83 - $185.18 2 Weeks 10 $182.02 $183.61 $1.59 +0.9% $1.95 $179.78 - $187.43 1 Month 22 $182.02 $186.64 $4.62 +2.5% $2.96 $180.84 - $192.44 2 Months 44 $182.02 $195.91 $13.89 +7.6% $4.36 $187.36 - $204.46 3 Months 66 $182.02 $204.22 $22.20 +12.2% $5.56 $193.33 - $215.11 6 Months 132 $182.02 $232.34 $50.32 +27.6% $8.77 $215.16 - $249.52 9 Months 198 $182.02 $280.66 $98.64 +54.2% $11.85 $257.43 - $303.89 1 Year 252 $182.02 $318.58 $136.56 +75.0% $14.40 $290.36 - $346.80

🎯 MODEL PERFORMANCE CONTEXT: Best Model: Lasso Regression Historical Accuracy (R²): 0.953 Historical RMSE: $5.04 Daily Volatility: 3.32%

📈 TREND ANALYSIS: Short-term (1 Week): NEUTRAL (+0.3%) Long-term (1 Year): BULLISH (+75.0%)

📋 PREDICTION METHODOLOGY: • Combines trend analysis, statistical drift, and ML predictions • Uses weighted averaging based on time horizon • Applies decay factors to prevent unrealistic long-term extrapolation • Incorporates model uncertainty and historical volatility

⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: • Predictions become less reliable over longer time horizons • Model trained on historical data may not capture future market changes • Consider prediction errors and confidence intervals when making decisions • These predictions should not be used as sole investment advice • Results are for educational/analytical purposes only

================================================================================ DETAILED MULTI-HORIZON ANALYSIS ================================================================================

📊 1 WEEK PREDICTION: Target Price: $182.51 Expected Change: +0.3% ($+0.49) 95% Confidence Range: $179.83 - $185.18 Prediction Error: ±$1.37 Trading Days: 5 Risk Level: 🟢 LOW RISK (0.8% error margin)

📊 2 WEEKS PREDICTION: Target Price: $183.61 Expected Change: +0.9% ($+1.59) 95% Confidence Range: $179.78 - $187.43 Prediction Error: ±$1.95 Trading Days: 10 Risk Level: 🟢 LOW RISK (1.1% error margin)

📊 1 MONTH PREDICTION: Target Price: $186.64 Expected Change: +2.5% ($+4.62) 95% Confidence Range: $180.84 - $192.44 … • Model shows consistent bullish sentiment across most time horizons • Potential for significant upside: up to +75.0%

⚠️ Remember: These are model predictions with inherent uncertainty. Use as part of broader analysis. Output is truncated. View as a scrollable element or open in a text editor. Adjust cell output settings…